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2024-03-07 21:43:11

WASDE Report | USDA

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WASDE Report

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is prepared and released by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). The report is released monthly, and provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton. The report also covers U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk, as well as Mexico’s supply and use of sugar. The WAOB chairs the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs), which include analysts from key USDA agencies who compile and interpret information from USDA and other domestic and foreign sources to produce the report. For more information about the WASDE process and data, visit the WASDE FAQs page.

NOTES TO USERS:

Note: The Secretary of Agriculture briefings on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and the Crop Production report can be viewed live each month starting 12:05pm ET, following the release of the WASDE report, on NASS’s YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/usdanass.

March 2024 WASDE Report (current)

PDF XML Excel Text

February 2024 WASDE Report (previous)

PDF XML Excel Text

Consolidated Historical WASDE Report Data 2010-2024 (WASDE Report data in .CSV format updated each month, the day after the WASDE release)

WASDE Visualization (This visualization is updated each month at 3:00 pm, the day after the WASDE release)

WASDE Archive

View archived WASDE reports.

2024 WASDE Release Dates (12:00pm ET)

Jan. 12, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 11, May 10, Jun. 12, Jul. 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 8, Dec. 10

Secretary's WASDE Briefing

Upland and Extra Long Staple Cotton Estimates

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怎样获取美国农业部（USDA）各类报告？ - 知乎

怎样获取美国农业部（USDA）各类报告？ - 知乎首发于期货、期权知识分享专栏切换模式写文章登录/注册怎样获取美国农业部（USDA）各类报告？冰岛sky一个从事期货套保与交割的期货分析员不喜欢一点一点挤牙膏，是干货就一次性给足！！！我们在进行商品期货交易时，往往会受到外盘的影响，尤其是农产品等商品期货，而我们知道国际上公认的主导国际农产品出口贸易的国家就是美国，并且其农产品现货数据是非常权威和具有完整性的，我们要想了解这些农产品的供需、出口、生长状况等就绕不开美国农业部（USDA），因此在这里给大家介绍一下怎样去获取美国农业部的各类报告。希望大家多多点赞支持，给我继续写下去的动力！一、美国农业部(USDA)各类报告及其发布时间发布机构报告内容发布时间美国农业部（USDA）周度出口检验每周一美国农业部（USDA）周度作物生长每年4-11月的每周一美国农业部（USDA）周度出口销售每周四美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告每月8-12日美国农业部（USDA）季度谷物库存每季度最后一个交易日美国农业部（USDA）作物种植意向每年3月末和6月末二、各类报告样式及获取途径下面均以美豆为例：1.周度出口检验FGIS数据统计-周度出口检验最上面的三行小字的意思是：*不包括在出口货物的总检验中。据报道，从圣劳斯威港口装运的小麦在加拿大储存1990年5月1日以前，所有的硬白小麦和软白小麦品种都被归类为白小麦。2.周度作物生长美国农业部发布的周度农作物生长的报告，4-6月报告美豆的播种进度，6-8报告美豆的开花、结荚和生长状况(优良率)，8-12月报告美豆的收获进度。获取链接：美国农业部经济数据市场信息系统点击右边方框内的PDF或TXT或ZIP格式就可得到农作物的生长情况，为了帮助大家看得懂网页，特地用工具转换成了中文版（PS：多点点赞啊，做这个很累哦），等到最终报告：（1）播种进度（2）出苗率（3）开花率从表中我们大致可以得到以下信息：2021年8月8日的开花率达到了91%，高于近五年开花率均值，高于上周开花率，与去年同期持平，说明当前美豆开花率较高。这18个州我还是给大家翻译一下吧Arkansas .......:阿肯色州 Illinois .......:伊利诺伊州Indiana ........:印第安纳州Iowa ...........:爱荷华州 Kansas .........:堪萨斯州Kentucky .......:肯塔基州Louisiana ......:路易斯安那州 Michigan .......:密歇根州 Minnesota ......:明尼苏达州Mississippi ....:密西西比州 Missouri .......:密苏里州 Nebraska .......:内布拉斯加州 North Carolina .:北卡罗来纳州North Dakota ...北达科他州 Ohio ...........:俄亥俄州South Dakota ...:南达科他州 ...: Tennessee ......:田纳西州 Wisconsin ......:威斯康星州（4）结荚率从表中可以看到截止2021年8月8日本周美豆的结荚率是72%，高于近五年结荚率均值，远高于上周结荚率，与去年同期差不多。同时就可以关注接下来的结荚率如果仍呈现上升趋势，美豆单产可能走高。（5）优良率从上表中可以看到截止2021年8月8日本周优良率为60%，与上周持平，与去年同期相比低很多，同样的要持续观察结荚率和优良率，若结荚率保持不变但优良率没有提升则可能单产会下滑。（6）落叶率（7）收获进度如果想看可视化的生长进度可以戳这里：作物生长进度（图表）还有非常重要的一个就是美国农作物主产区的天气情况和土壤墒情状况，我仔细想了想那个也是硬核干货要花费很长篇幅才能讲得好，所以这里先留个空等以后链接文章详细解读，敬请期待！3.周度出口销售周度出口销售点击上面图中Weekly Net Sales and Exports，就可以获取周度出口销售报告。上图中国家依次为：越南印度威尼斯科伦马来西亚台湾巴巴多加拿大日本泰国缅甸韩国代表菲尔墨西哥中国未知埃及秘鲁如果想了解更多信息，像美豆的未执行销售合同与累计出口数据，那么就要看这个表了:周度出口销售详细版从上图可以得到以下信息：截止8月5日当周，2020/2021年度美豆本周未执行销售合同为257.17万吨，本周出口装船量12.97万吨，累计出口装船5944.54万吨，销售总计（未执行销售合同+累计出口装船）为6201.71万吨。4.月度供需报告查询供需平衡表的方法一：WASDE 报告查询供需平衡表的方法二：PSD Online5.季度谷物库存季度谷物库存6.作物种植意向作物种植意向编辑于 2021-08-16 15:42商品期货期货交易期货赞同 18247 条评论分享喜欢收藏申请转载文章被以下专栏收录期货、期权知识分

Agency Reports | USDA

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Thu, 03/07/2024

8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS

Fri, 03/08/2024

12:00 pm Livestock and Meat International Trade Data ERS12:00 pm Cotton Ginnings NASS12:00 pm Crop Production NASS12:15 pm Cotton: World Markets and Trade FAS12:15 pm Grains: World Markets and Trade FAS12:15 pm Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade FAS12:15 pm World Agricultural Production FAS3:00 pm County Estimates - All Rice NASS3:00 pm Peanut Prices NASS

Mon, 03/11/2024

12:00 pm Feed Grains Database ERS3:00 pm Season Average Price Forecasts ERS3:00 pm U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update ERS3:00 pm Wheat data ERS3:00 pm Price Reactions after Crop Reports NASS3:00 pm Price Reactions after Livestock Reports NASS

Tue, 03/12/2024

12:00 pm Cotton and Wool Outlook: March 2024 ERS12:00 pm Meat Price Spreads ERS12:00 pm Oil Crops Outlook: March 2024 ERS3:00 pm Dairy Monthly Tables ERS3:00 pm Feed Outlook: March 2024 ERS3:00 pm Wheat Outlook: March 2024 ERS

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02/13/24 USDA releases 2022 Census of Agriculture data

01/31/24 United States cattle inventory down 2%

01/11/24 USDA to kick off the National Agricultural Classification Survey

12/22/23 United States hog inventory up slightly

12/18/23 USDA to conduct study on sheep and lamb health and management

回顾美豆USDA报告：当我们谈论基本面时，我们在谈论什么 - 知乎

回顾美豆USDA报告：当我们谈论基本面时，我们在谈论什么 - 知乎切换模式写文章登录/注册回顾美豆USDA报告：当我们谈论基本面时，我们在谈论什么金融界来源：CFC农产品研究提要：　　时光飞逝，USDA一月报告已经近在眼前。　　趁着报告还未到来，我们想回顾一下过去一年USDA报告给与大豆研究方向的经验教训，更新我们对USDA月报的认知与态度。　　美豆的2021无疑是波澜壮阔的，从2020年底1000美分开始启动，至5月12日达到1667美分的峰值，美豆价格站上了自2012年9月以来的新高。　　作为农产品家族的一员，历史级的大行情一定是以供应短缺为起点。自去年8月开始，20/21年度美豆产量就经历了连续下调。53.3-51.9-50.7-50.2蒲式耳/英亩的连续调整，将旧季美豆供给从过剩打至平衡。同时，国内生猪养殖复苏带来的旺盛豆粕需求也让南美大豆早早卖空，美豆成为了独家供应商，这也为后续的猛烈上涨奠定了基础。　　我们从时间轴上进行梳理。1-3月，随着旧季美豆单产的下调和出口的上调，美豆从1300美分上涨至1400美分，展望论坛给出的9000万英亩新季种植面积是限制涨幅的主要原因。4-5月，种植面积预测的下降使得美豆压力屏障消失，新季1.4亿蒲库存叠加天气及生柴双重炒作，共同助推了1600美分的美豆巅峰。6-9月，持续低迷的出口和压榨数据让炒作题材熄火，而平衡表上出口和压榨的双降让旧季库存从1.2上涨至1.75亿蒲，美豆价格也从高位回落至1300美分左右。9月底的季度报告和10月供需报告分别将新旧两季单产上调，但出口调整谨慎，美豆也在1200-1300美分持续震荡至年底。　　从事后的角度看，价格的波动是与基本面的松紧一致的，库存的最低预期——旧季1.2亿蒲与新季1.4亿蒲——出现的五月恰好也是价格极值形成的时刻。理论上，品种基本面与价格的吻合为基本面投研提供了很好的回报，即把握好供需变动情况可以获得较好的α收益。但实际研究体验并不如此。　　投研中常常强调预期差的概念，即希望基本面研究所形成的个人预期是超越市场预期、更贴近于现实的，对基本面的更准确预测是超额收益主要来源。这涉及一个关键问题，即现实/基本面具体指代的是什么，要以什么数据为表征。　　以美豆期末库存为例，库存的增减变动是最能反应供需紧张或宽松程度的，因此这一数据对于美豆价格影响是最大的。对于库存情况最准确的刻画是来自USDA的季度库存报告，其库存数据来自对6万多家农产的和90％商业运营机构的调查得出，误差基本可控，能真实反应库存状况。但每季度结束后30天才公布的库存数据缺乏对期末库存情况刻画的时效性，其显然不能满足期货有关预期博弈的需求，因此在每年大多数时间，USDA月度供需报告对于期末库存的预测成为了市场主要参考。　　故事与偏差就诞生与2021年的月度供需报告上。过去年份里月度供需报告对于产量和需求以及最终库存的刻画虽然偶有偏离，但总是能通过月度级别的更新进行调整，而2021年的月度供需报告却是一连串的超预期。1月报告出现了对旧季大豆单产超预期下调，2月展望论坛则给出了极度乐观的出口数据，3月底超低的面积数据使市场对新季库存的悲观持续到了5月，6月报告将本该调降的出口进行了调增，同时压榨推迟到8月才进行大修、但8月又反常下调了新季产量，让新旧季单产同时产生偏离。　　一连串事后看来不合理调整对美豆价格的前期突破和后期维持起到了决定性作用，市场在这一过程中虽然尝试过对更高的库存进行交易，但次次利空的USDA数据使得报告前的走低总是会被反弹所代替，最终形成了贯穿全年的高价格。　　故事的转折点发生在9月30号公布的三季度库存报告，终于掩盖不住的高库存使得美国农业部不得不大幅上调旧季单产，同时在10月报告里一并上调的新季单产数据。但彼时针对产量的交易已经过去，数据公布带来的利空影响完全无法与种植季超预期下调带来的利空相媲美，加上新季出口数据仍在超预期的高位，美豆价格也维持了下来。　　报告屡次的超预期让研究体会到的并不是惊喜，因为报告本身已经和实际情况产生了重大偏离。在收割10个月后才迎来的旧季单产大幅调整，仿佛是在嘲笑前期研究者们对单产提升的屡次预测。要知道2.56亿蒲的实际库存比5月报告坚持的1.2亿蒲翻了一倍还多，如此巨大的偏差显然难以用统计误差来解释。　　回到最初的问题，在预期差这一概念中，现实/基本面具体指代的是什么。如果是客观现实——51蒲以上的新旧季单产和2.5亿蒲以上的旧季库存，那此种预期差大多数时间为投资者带来的显然不是收益而是巨大亏损。在去年的情境下，预期差中的基本面只能是USDA月度报告给出的预测，只有对报告的更准确预测才能战胜市场获得超额收益。而问题是在脱离现实的背景下，报告本身是不可测的，对产业和数据的钻研无法预测新季出口将在哪次报告迎来下调，这对于投研来说无疑是痛苦的。　　总的来说，2021年我们见证了美豆超级行情，但在行情的形成和后续维持过程中，USDA报告的超预期调整却成了关键因素。这使得去年行情下对实际情况的判断必须让位于对报告数据的判断，把握美国农业部希望高位卖豆的心态才是重中之重。虽然这种情况让投研面临困局，但对未来仍有启迪，即下一次平衡表趋紧而形成一定上涨基础时，要将USDA报告调整超预期视为更高概率的事件。　　而对于本次1月报告而言，巴西与阿根廷产量调减500万吨（巴西1.41亿吨，阿根廷4750万吨）还是减少1000万吨（巴西1.37亿吨，阿根廷4550万吨）实际上对全球大豆库存变动影响有限，对美豆的也影响多是通过22-23年度美豆出口体现。而目前大豆出口销售已经完成了从北美向南美的转移，再次超预期可能是为巴西售卖抬轿子。因此，对于1月报告，我们倾向于认为发生超预期调整（1000万吨）的可能性并不高，报告稳健调整是更值得期待的。发布于 2022-01-11 10:44基本面分析赞同添加评论分享喜欢收藏申请

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Publication | World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates | ID: 3t945q76s | USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System

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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

WAOB

This monthly report provides the current USDA forecasts of U.S. and world supply-use balances of major grains, soybeans and products, and cotton; and U.S. supply and use of sugar and livestock products. Historical WASDE Crop Estimates (Lotus Notes Formats through 1995). NOTE TO USERS Previously, corrections to the WASDE report were reposted to the OCE and Cornell’s MANN Library websites under the same file name. However, starting in January 2020, if the WASDE report is reposted to correct an error in the tables or text, the file name (for all four file formats) will be changed to reflect that there is a new version, and an errata statement will be included in the file and posted on the OCE website to describe the change. For example, the name of the December 2019 WASDE is “wasde1219.xxx” If a revision were necessary, the corrected file would be posted as “wasde1219v2.xxx” If another revision was necessary, the next file would be posted as “wasde1219v3.xxx,”etc. NOTE: To subscribe to receive WASDE-related notifications by email or text message click on the link below: https://visitor.r20.constantcontact.com/manage/optin?v=001Sk_8Aa13394xonLLUknSR8gV4svqt8mXPptH_GUW74NNTBDTTMt7_gBESltFwllgXw8VGxFSRUtYBiUj8COK8ipImCbFA85b3djv9xK4z68%3D Historical WASDE Crop Estimates (Lotus Notes Formats through 1995) was updated in January 1995. Filter the date range in the releases below, or use this link: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/3t945q76s?release_start_date=1995-01-31&release_end_date=1995-01-31&locale=en. Click on the Details link icon for more information.

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Category:Crops and Crop Products:Sugar Crops

Keywords:cottongrainssoybeanssugarssupply

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The USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS) contains over 2,100 publications from five agencies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). These materials cover U.S. and international agriculture and related

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12月USDA报告解读_腾讯新闻

12月USDA报告解读

来源：油粕面

美国农业部（USDA）今早发布了最新的《世界农业供需预测报告》。美国农业部保持国内玉米和大豆的预估不变，这给玉米价格增加了轻微的看跌压力，此前报告预期乙醇使用量将上调。

但小麦价格出现了最为显著的市场波动，因为南半球产量估计的提高和美国小麦出口的减少有助于增加全球小麦供应。

玉米

美国农业部对2021/22年玉米供应和使用的展望没有改变。这使得期末库存保持稳定，达到14.93亿蒲式耳。分析师预计将出现小幅下跌，平均市场预计为14.87亿蒲式耳。

季节平均农场价格也保持不变，为每蒲式耳5.45美元。

农场期货谷物市场分析师杰奎琳·霍兰德（Jacqueline Holland）指出，在今天的报告中，人们对美国农业部将上调乙醇产量持乐观态度，此前八周，美国农业部每周乙醇产量在排名前八中占到四名。

但美国农业部在今天的报告中保持了对国内玉米使用量的所有估计不变，”她说。“在过去几周，新冠病毒的发现增加了全球经济的不确定性，美国农业部的世界农业展望委员会（WAOB）计算WASDE修正值可能在估计未来使用量时出现了保守的错误。”

报告发布后，玉米价格小幅下跌，但此后一直徘徊。

大豆

与玉米一样，美国农业部在11月和12月的报告中没有改变对2021/22年度大豆供应和使用量的预期。期末库存持稳，为3.4亿蒲式耳。分析师认为，这一数字还将上涨1,200万蒲式耳。

季节平均农产品价格也保持稳定，为每蒲式耳12.10美元。

全球期末库存趋势温和走低，从11月的38.13亿蒲式耳降至37.47亿蒲式耳。相比之下，分析师预期会温和增长，平均预期为38.26亿蒲式耳。

过去几周，市场对南美的天气预报反应敏感，因为人们的注意力转向了巴西的大豆作物。但大豆主产区马托格罗索州最近迎来了充足的降雨，这对大豆幼苗来说是个好兆头。

然而，在降水方面，巴西南部的其他主产州就没那么幸运了，温暖干燥的天气继续打击该地区及其大豆作物。但现在还处于生长季节的早期，现在还无法判断当前的天气状况会对幼苗造成多大的损害。

美国农业部WAOB在历史上是通过调整全球产量估算来衡量的。对于南美洲来说，在出口旺季结束之前，并不总是能够获得完整的生产信息。这主要是因为市场接收到更新的使用信息，从而更全面地了解可用库存，从而提高生产效率。

因此，WAOB在今天的报告中保持南美玉米和大豆产量不变，这也许并不令人惊讶。但是，在这个生长季节还有很多时间，由于预计今年冬天西半球将出现拉尼娜天气模式，南美玉米和大豆作物的最终结果仍存在很大的不确定性。

小麦

根据今天的报告，美国农业部对小麦的最新评估包括“供应略有减少，国内使用保持不变，出口减少，最终库存增加”。期末库存增加了1500万蒲式耳，达到5.98亿蒲式耳。这高于5.89亿蒲式耳的平均交易预期，但仍较上年同期低29％。

美国农业部本营销年度将出口量下调了2,000万蒲式耳，降至8.4亿蒲式耳，原因是硬红冬麦和春小麦销售放缓。

有趣的是，2021年10月美国农业部外国农业服务（FAS）和美国统计局的数据显示，小麦的每月发货量比一年前下降了30％。每周FAS发布的出口货物数据显示，2021年11月的小麦产量比2020年11月的同类发货量低了近1000万蒲式耳（19％）。

Holland说：“因此，美国农业部决定在2021/22年美国期末库存增加1500万蒲式耳，原因是出口和进口减少，这一决定并不令人惊讶，尽管它在报告发布后继续为小麦在贸易中的看跌价格行为辩护。”。

此外，美国农业部补充称，美国出口价格预计将在2021/2022年剩余时间保持高位，进一步削弱美国的竞争力。

全球库存小幅走高——从11月的101.33亿蒲式耳上升至102.20亿蒲式耳。在给出了101.51亿蒲式耳的平均交易猜测后，分析师预计这一数字不会达到这么高。美国农业部提高了对俄罗斯、澳大利亚和加拿大的产量估计。

霍兰德说：“由于南半球的全球供应可能紧缩，全球小麦价格在11月份升至多年高点，有时甚至创下历史新高。”。“尽管阿根廷天气干燥，澳大利亚收获期间雨水过多，但美国农业部对两国的生产前景仍然乐观。”

正如Holland指出的那样，尽管存在早期干旱问题，美国农业部仍保持2021/22年阿根廷小麦产量不变。但最近几周的阵雨有助于减少一些生产担忧。澳大利亚经历了干旱的一周，收获持续，质量担忧得以缓解。美国农业部将澳大利亚的产量提高了近9200万蒲式耳，因此在2021/22年的营销活动中，产量达到11.6亿蒲式耳。

这一前景使全球小麦库存增加了8700万蒲式耳，这将有助于缓解小麦价格飙升和一些通胀压力，”她说。“在过去几天里，可能已经预订了销售订单的农民当然应该受到赞扬，因为他们利用了市场潜力。由于预计未来几天美国平原的湿度状况将有所改善，市场也在谈论2022年冬小麦种植面积的增加，小麦价格很可能会进入熊市。”在未来几周内。”

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